Last week: 3-8
Season total: 61-59-1
Thursday
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| Stafford strained his agape mouth here. OUT 2-4 weeks. |
This seems pretty obvious right now, but with the injury to James Starks and the reemergence of former Golden Knight Kevin Smith, the Lions may have the advantage in the running game now. This scenario reminded me a lot of the Packers-Saints matchup to kickoff the season, but Green Bay's viscous aerial assault negated any run game theatrics we would see later in the contest. Even with Matthew Stafford a little banged up, I kind of like his chances to hang with Aaron Rodgers in the passing game, because let's face it: the Lions front four has been getting pressure on quarterbacks, while the Packers have been stunted up front and sometimes gashed downfield. I won't say the Lions will win (and Lord I hope not), but this one should be way closer than we think. If I told you that Detroit won their home game against the Pack 7-3 last year, would you believe me? Rodgers only played a couple of drives, but that was just one in a long line of those pesky Lions hanging tough with their neighbors to the west.
The pick: Lions cover 6.5
Dolphins at Cowboys [-7] 4:15PM EST CBS
As much as I'd like to see Dallas go down in flames here, they usually show up on Turkey Day. I expect Tony Romo to have a fabulous day (get Laurent Robinson in your starting lineups, kids), but not much from either running game. Both of these teams are statistically sound against the run, so don't count on Reggie Bush or DeMarco Murray to go gangbusters here. And really, Miami would be lucky if they sniffed 35 points again, much less 14 in this one. Unless Brandon Marshall gets going, this one should be over by halftime.
The pick: Cowboys cover 7
49ers at Ravens [PICK EM] 8:20PM EST NFL Network
With such low expectations on offense and such a close spread, I could flip a coin all day and not figure out who wins this contest. When in doubt, though, hedge your bets and go with the home team. And the team with Ray Rice. And the team with 9-toed Ray Lewis.
The pick: Ravens 16-10
Friday
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| LSU RB/Tide Killer Spencer Ware |
My days of hating on LSU are over I guess...I reckon they're pretty good. Combined with the heavy hearts over at Arkansas following the sudden death of one of their teammates, it's really hard to pass on the Tigers in this one. But the real bet here is when the discussions of ending divisions within conferences and having a gawddamned playoff heat up. I think such reactionary squabble is silly these days, but you know who isn't looking forward to the inevitable LSU-Bama National Title game? About 35 other states in the Union.
The pick: LSU 34-17
Saturday
(6) Virginia Tech at (24) Virginia [PICK EM] 3:30PM EST ABC Regional
After watching a good chunk of that UVA-FSU game last week, I'm getting the feeling that I should pick UVA at home but we all know that's an illusion, used to trick us into believing that the Hokies don't show up in clutch situations. And this is clutch--the winner represents the Atlantic division in the ACC and will face Clemson in that title game. VT lost to Clemson 23-3. At home. It was their only loss of the season. Despite the Hokies playing far too many close games for my liking this season, I think Beamer Ball will shine in the battle of one of the five shittiest states to live in.
The pick: Virginia Tech 27-16.
This is normally a game where I just say X team should win by 30, but that's what I said last week when Oklahoma State and LSU traveled to Iowa State and Ole Miss respectively. One lost in glorious overtime fashion after blowing a huge lead; the other won by almost 50. I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but dammit if Alabama stops points from happening and Auburn lets points in like the hospitable bitches they've been all season. I begrudgingly will do this...
The pick: Alabama covers 21
(20) Penn State at (15) Wisconsin [O/U 49] 3:30PM EST ESPN
The Nittany Lions burned me on the road last week, so perhaps that poor showing at home against Nebraska was just a bump in the road. I don't have the benefit of this being a noon start, so this spread a bit tricky...but for all the marbles in the Leaders division I have to go with Russell Wilson and the Badgers controlling the tempo and keeping this in favor of Wisconsin. Their defense will show up and Montee Ball will continue his quest to reach 30 RuTD for the season. #holyshit!
The pick: Under 49
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| Jeffrey Demps, fastest man this side of Africa, has last game at home |
If I get this one wrong I shouldn't be picking anymore, because after watching almost every Florida game this year (sorry, Furman), it's obvious: the Gators defense stinks! They are rebuilding, so I'm not particularly mad, but at this juncture it's safe to assume that the Gators inconsistent but explosive offense puts up three TD's and the defense allows three TD's. Don't ask me who will win, but please ask me who I'm rooting for.
The pick: Over 45
Sunday
Bills at Jets [-9] 1PM EST CBS
The Bills were in a free fall before Fred Jackson decided that his fibula was in two pieces, and this spread came out before Jackson was IRed, so....yeah. Jets should pound this one into the ground. Not literally, because Mark Sanchez still needs to air it out, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has completely fallen off the face of the Earth and this one could mimic the Bills-Dolphins score from last week.
The pick: Jets cover 9
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| I feel like McGahee has played for Denver four different times by now |
People may be hot the Broncos defense in fantasy this week, what with Phil Rivers' all but guaranteed two picks in this contest, but it's the Chargers defense that is the real story. With the exception of home games against the Vikings, Dolphins, and Chiefs in the first month of the season, San Diego has failed to keep any opponent from scoring under 23 points, including the Broncos game earlier this season. Yes, that was the Tebow relief appearance, but in a groove, Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee have found a knack for the endzone. And you know the Chargers will find it, too.
The pick: Over 42
Monday
Giants at Saints [O/U 51] 8:30PM EST ESPN
I can rehash all my thoughts about Eli saving everything until late, the obvious combustibility of the Saints offense, the Saints putrid everything on defense, but one thing is clear: this should be a helluva game. I'm not sure how many points over 51 these teams will get (probably just a touch), but I actually think this'll be higher scoring than Detroit-Green Bay. And why isn't this called the Jeremy Shockey Bowl?
The pick: Over 51
Stats by cbssports, spreads by vegasinsider on Wednesday
